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The direst projected effects of the climate crisis for the UK have been mapped by scientists, ranging from a searing 4C jump in temperatures to a 2-metre increase in sea level. Another scenario foresees a drop of 6C in temperature following the failure of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact food production and energy needs.

Plausible Events, Not Predictions

These effects, certain ones are associated with irreversible climate shifts, are seen as improbable but credible. The scientists said that these scenarios addressed a shortfall in forecasting that had rendered the UK not ready for catastrophic possibilities.

"The climate extremes we have outlined aren’t predictions, but they are credible," said the lead researcher who led the research. "Britain has been planning lacking the tools to assess catastrophic outcomes. We've now supplied decision-makers what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but must not overlook."

A Suite of Harsh Climate Projections

A second set of dire projections sets out the possible scale of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These show that temperatures could soar in certain periods by up to 6C higher than historical levels, while precipitation could be 300% of typical amounts.

The likelihood of the catastrophic events happening cannot be precisely determined due to a lack of certainty about what action will be implemented to address climate change and how the planet's climate will behave. This research was compared to security threat evaluations or scenario planning for financial systems.

Critical Scenario Elements

• Four-Degree Warming: Worldwide averages rising well above 4C by 2100 could occur if climate action collapses or if strong feedback loops such as the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source unleash its huge repository of carbon. This would result in severe and lengthy heat domes and dry spells affecting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A key circulation system, the AMOC, is losing strength and losing stability due to global heating. A collapse starting around 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Farming would struggle enormously and water supplies would be completely altered," noted the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic disintegrate quickly, submerging seaside communities. Differing from the other scenarios, this risk is already known by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is drastically reduced. This counterintuitive effect occurs because tiny specks from burning coal reflect solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Worst

The severe models could be applied to guide the building of critical national infrastructure, including expanded cities, energy plants and urban drainage systems. Knowledge about these climate risks could also accelerate the transition to slash fossil fuel emissions.

The study created the severe projections using a blend of observed and historical experience, climate models and scientific theory. The possibilities omit potential global problems like the global food shortages and increased conflict.

This work was requested as part of a national risk assessment framework. Previous assessments have warned that too little consideration was being given to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

An independent advisory body has said that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and evaluate the dangers for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been criticised as being "very weak" by certain experts.

A government spokesperson commented: "Climate change is at the core of the country's focus, both preparing for impacts and establishing itself as a low-carbon economy. It is vital that the UK is resilient for the consequences."